IATA : Optimism for travel restart as borders reopen
IATA and Tourism Economics recently released a long-term view for post-COVID-19 passenger demand recovery that demonstrates that people remain eager to travel in the short and long-term.
Forecast highlights include:
In 2021, global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 52% of pre-COVID-19 levels (2019).
In 2022, global passenger numbers are expected to recover to 88% of pre-COVID-19 levels.
In 2023, global passenger numbers are expected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels (105%).
By 2030, global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion. That would be 7% below the pre-COVID-19 forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth due to COVID-19.
Beyond 2030 air travel is expected to slow, due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalization, giving average annual growth between 2019 and 2039 of 3.2%. IATA’s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was 3.8%.
The recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), which is expected to grow an annual average of 3% between 2019 and 2039. This is owing to the expected strength of domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances.
The damage of the COVID-19 crisis will be felt for years to come, but all indications are that people have retained their need and desire to travel.
Any possibility for borders to re-open is met with an instant surge in bookings. The most recent example is the 100-percentage point spike in bookings from the United Kingdom to Portugal when the UK’s “Green List” was announced in early May.
The economy is strong and can fuel growth in travel. February 2021 industrial production levels stood at 2% above February 2019 levels.
Consumers have accumulated savings in the lockdowns, in some cases exceeding 10% of GDP.
Vaccination rates in developed countries (with the notable exception of Japan) should exceed 50% of the population by the third quarter of 2021. – IATA
