IATA estimates $28 billion loss in 2020 for Asia-Pacific region airlines
Travel Biz News —
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that its initial assessment of the impact of the Novel Coronavirus 2019 outbreak (COVID-19) shows a $27.8 billion revenue loss in 2020 for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region.
The bulk of which would be borne by carriers registered in China, with $12.8 billion lost in the China domestic market alone.
IATA estimates a potential 13 per cent full-year loss of passenger demand for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region this year.
Similarly, carriers outside Asia-Pacific are forecast to bear a revenue loss of $1.5 billion, assuming the loss of demand is limited to markets linked to China. This would bring total global lost revenue to $29.3 billion and represent a 4.7 per cent hit to global demand
These estimates are based on a scenario where COVID-19 has a similar V-shaped impact on demand as was experienced during SARS. That was characterized by a six-month period with a sharp decline followed by an equally quick recovery.
The estimated impact of the COVID-19 outbreak also assumes that the center of the public health emergency remains in China. If it spreads more widely to Asia-Pacific markets then impacts on airlines from other regions would be larger.
“It is premature to estimate what this revenue loss will mean for global profitability. We don’t yet know exactly how the outbreak will develop and whether it will follow the same profile as SARS or not. Governments will use fiscal and monetary policy to try to offset the adverse economic impacts. Some relief may be seen in lower fuel prices for some airlines, depending on how fuel costs have been hedged , “ IATA said.
“These are challenging times for the global air transport industry . Stopping the spread of the virus is the top priority. Airlines are following the guidance of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other public health authorities to keep passengers safe, the world connected, and the virus contained. The sharp downturn in demand as a result of COVID-19 will have a financial impact on airlines—severe for those particularly exposed to the China market. We estimate that global traffic will be reduced by 4.7% by the virus, which could more than offset the growth we previously forecast and cause the first overall decline in demand since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. And that scenario would translate into lost passenger revenues of $29.3 billion. Airlines are making difficult decisions to cut capacity and in some cases routes. Lower fuel costs will help offset some of the lost revenue. This will be a very tough year for airlines,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
Advice to Travelers
The WHO has not called for restrictions on travel or trade. Indeed, air transport plays a major role—bringing medical staff and supplies to where they are needed.
WHO has published extensive advice to travelers . Passengers should be reassured that cabin air is filtered, that aircraft are cleaned in line with global standards, that key airports have implemented temperature screening for travelers and that airline staff and crew are trained to deal with the rare case of a passenger presenting with symptoms of infection.
“If you are sick, don’t travel. If you have flu-like symptoms, wear a mask and see a doctor. And when you travel wash your hands frequently and don’t touch your face. Observing these simple measures should keep flying safe for all,” said Dr. David Powell, IATA’s Medical Advisor.
Photo: Flightglobal.com
Feb. 22, 2020
